* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/01/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 73 75 75 74 69 67 63 60 59 57 53 52 50 49 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 73 75 75 74 69 67 63 60 59 57 53 52 50 49 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 68 67 64 63 62 59 56 51 48 45 41 37 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 5 3 3 1 2 2 5 3 5 7 8 9 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 -2 -2 0 5 5 4 5 3 7 8 7 4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 233 212 219 264 311 357 102 258 206 226 246 242 260 252 277 264 282 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.0 26.5 26.5 26.0 26.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 132 132 129 128 129 131 133 128 128 122 124 132 131 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 60 61 62 59 62 60 63 61 59 58 59 59 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 13 14 16 15 16 15 16 16 15 15 15 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -24 -20 -18 -7 0 -2 -11 -11 -1 10 24 31 36 26 16 4 200 MB DIV 50 21 -10 -16 18 61 26 19 1 10 15 10 11 13 2 0 16 700-850 TADV -6 -2 0 0 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1 2 1 3 LAND (KM) 1738 1809 1884 1953 2011 2136 2261 2331 2155 1981 1807 1626 1466 1318 1145 960 798 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.6 125.6 126.6 127.5 128.4 130.2 131.9 133.4 135.1 136.8 138.5 140.3 141.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 11 5 4 3 6 5 5 6 2 5 1 1 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -13. -17. -18. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.3 124.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.33 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.85 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 361.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 -3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.91 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.8% 30.9% 25.3% 20.7% 15.3% 18.5% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 22.6% 32.0% 23.4% 13.5% 6.6% 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.0% 21.3% 16.2% 11.4% 7.3% 7.1% 4.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##