* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 07/31/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 64 67 71 71 69 65 59 53 48 44 39 37 35 32 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 64 67 71 71 69 65 59 53 48 44 39 37 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 61 62 63 61 58 54 49 43 38 33 28 24 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 2 5 6 10 7 6 2 9 20 24 22 17 16 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 1 0 0 2 5 8 9 3 1 2 2 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 297 324 309 282 279 338 334 341 332 263 285 303 302 285 274 257 247 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.1 26.0 26.6 26.8 26.2 25.5 25.9 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 146 142 136 134 130 129 124 123 129 131 125 118 122 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 57 58 58 57 61 59 59 57 56 55 51 49 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 19 19 20 19 17 16 15 14 12 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -27 -25 -27 -31 -23 -20 -5 -5 -3 0 0 6 7 19 16 23 200 MB DIV 26 35 50 35 9 46 8 32 27 31 13 30 40 17 14 -7 13 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 -2 0 1 2 3 5 0 3 1 1 4 5 5 LAND (KM) 1433 1492 1537 1592 1653 1782 1911 2004 2114 2238 2214 2037 1840 1634 1429 1227 1029 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.5 121.6 122.7 123.8 125.8 127.7 129.3 130.9 132.5 134.2 135.9 137.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 14 13 10 8 3 2 2 0 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -4. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 21. 21. 19. 15. 9. 3. -2. -6. -11. -13. -15. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.5 119.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.61 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.82 9.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.35 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 7.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.63 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.36 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.6% 51.0% 41.2% 27.5% 16.3% 0.0% 16.7% 9.5% Logistic: 26.6% 45.1% 37.6% 28.8% 8.1% 9.1% 1.7% 2.9% Bayesian: 1.5% 9.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 18.6% 35.2% 26.9% 19.0% 8.2% 3.3% 6.2% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##