* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/29/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 31 30 28 26 23 21 21 23 23 24 23 23 21 19 V (KT) LAND 40 36 30 32 31 29 27 24 22 22 24 24 25 25 24 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 40 36 33 31 29 27 26 26 26 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 18 21 23 23 20 18 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 10 8 4 6 4 4 0 0 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 322 306 287 277 274 271 275 285 291 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.8 25.9 26.4 26.9 26.8 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.1 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 123 124 130 135 134 139 141 143 136 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 38 38 34 33 36 37 36 36 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 13 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -15 -28 -37 -41 -54 -72 -90 -96 -97 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -10 6 -2 -7 -23 -20 -9 -26 4 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -17 -12 -10 -11 -14 -9 -3 -6 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 224 96 -6 39 87 278 604 936 1226 1494 1750 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.9 22.6 23.1 23.4 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.8 154.5 156.1 157.8 159.6 162.9 166.1 169.3 172.1 174.7 177.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 3 10 5 14 13 19 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -21. -22. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -19. -17. -17. -16. -17. -17. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.3 152.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/29/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 414.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/29/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##