* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/29/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 39 38 36 32 29 27 25 26 28 29 30 30 27 25 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 39 38 36 33 29 27 25 26 28 29 30 30 28 25 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 40 39 37 35 33 32 31 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 9 11 18 24 25 24 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 13 11 9 7 8 4 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 311 319 301 275 270 270 276 261 267 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.5 26.1 26.4 26.6 27.3 27.4 27.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 127 130 132 139 140 140 148 145 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 9 11 11 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 38 37 36 34 32 32 34 34 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 16 14 12 10 7 6 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 -7 -16 -20 -24 -34 -48 -58 -67 -65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -19 -17 0 -2 -10 -24 0 -15 -12 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -11 -12 -9 -10 -9 -10 -1 -6 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 369 192 31 48 184 268 509 827 1169 1527 1875 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.3 153.0 154.7 156.4 158.0 161.3 164.7 168.0 171.4 174.9 178.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 3 4 17 9 12 32 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -17. -21. -23. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -19. -17. -16. -15. -15. -17. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.1 151.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/29/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 472.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/29/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##