* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/28/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 45 42 39 36 33 30 29 30 31 32 32 31 29 26 V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 45 42 39 36 33 30 29 30 31 32 32 31 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 46 44 41 39 38 38 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 11 13 13 12 18 22 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 12 15 12 6 9 4 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 304 284 301 310 276 276 285 274 263 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.4 25.6 26.3 27.1 27.2 27.4 28.0 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 116 119 121 129 137 138 140 147 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 42 40 38 34 33 35 34 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 18 16 13 11 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -12 -1 -3 -10 -15 -22 -39 -51 -63 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -36 -32 -24 -14 4 -4 -24 -11 -18 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -7 -5 -13 -13 -13 -15 -13 -6 -10 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 742 565 389 222 79 100 170 438 778 1137 1496 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.0 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.7 149.4 151.1 152.8 154.4 157.8 161.1 164.3 167.7 171.2 174.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 8 11 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -21. -23. -21. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -21. -20. -19. -18. -18. -19. -21. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.8 147.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/28/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 450.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/28/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##