* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/27/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 60 58 55 50 45 42 38 35 34 35 36 37 38 38 37 V (KT) LAND 60 61 60 58 55 50 45 42 38 36 35 36 37 37 38 38 37 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 62 60 57 51 47 44 41 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 10 6 9 10 7 15 9 13 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 6 3 6 6 7 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 271 234 233 258 246 265 291 275 272 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 25.3 25.1 24.5 24.5 24.9 25.0 25.8 26.5 27.3 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 119 116 110 110 114 115 123 131 139 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 56 53 46 45 42 42 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 22 21 20 18 17 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 -7 1 -6 -17 -23 -33 -29 -40 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 10 7 6 -11 -16 -22 -8 1 -3 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -3 -1 -4 -2 -5 -8 -7 -7 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1739 1555 1371 1199 1027 700 397 92 72 165 373 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.4 140.1 141.8 143.4 145.0 148.1 151.0 154.0 157.1 160.3 163.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 16 15 14 14 14 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -14. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -18. -22. -25. -26. -25. -24. -23. -22. -22. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.6 138.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 352.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 7.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##