* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/27/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 43 48 52 54 58 61 63 67 71 75 78 78 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 43 48 52 54 58 61 63 67 71 75 78 78 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 38 40 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 14 11 11 16 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 260 251 259 253 224 246 241 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.7 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 140 143 142 141 134 135 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 140 143 141 137 129 130 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 13 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 40 39 39 40 39 40 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 6 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -15 -20 -26 -30 -44 -53 -52 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -14 0 15 31 19 -5 3 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 7 3 -3 -2 -1 -3 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1352 1210 1095 900 696 355 222 122 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.1 53.1 55.2 57.2 59.2 62.9 66.4 69.9 73.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 20 19 18 17 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 11 26 26 19 24 15 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 14. 17. 19. 23. 26. 28. 32. 36. 40. 43. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.3 51.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.54 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.74 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 336.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.54 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.74 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.2% 9.5% 7.2% 4.2% 8.8% 10.0% 11.1% Logistic: 3.5% 11.7% 10.7% 4.8% 1.3% 4.1% 1.5% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 9.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.8% 4.4% 3.9% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 39 41 43 48 52 54 58 61 63 67 71 75 78 78 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 41 46 50 52 56 59 61 65 69 73 76 76 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 36 41 45 47 51 54 56 60 64 68 71 71 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 34 38 40 44 47 49 53 57 61 64 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT