* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/27/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 32 32 37 40 44 48 50 56 59 62 66 68 71 73 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 32 32 37 40 44 48 50 44 35 31 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 28 28 28 28 29 31 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 11 14 14 9 14 7 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 -1 0 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 270 278 271 252 261 227 250 261 317 320 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 27.0 27.4 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 127 132 133 140 142 142 136 138 138 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 127 132 132 139 140 138 132 134 133 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 44 41 44 43 44 45 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 9 7 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 0 -4 -11 -17 -23 -33 -38 -25 -27 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -7 -7 -10 -6 17 29 -5 -8 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 6 6 4 2 -2 -1 -1 -5 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1537 1472 1352 1209 1089 722 372 148 79 44 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.1 49.1 51.1 53.1 55.0 58.9 62.4 65.7 69.1 72.6 76.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 19 19 19 17 16 16 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 9 11 25 21 30 17 30 32 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -3. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 21. 24. 27. 31. 33. 36. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.8 47.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.47 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.74 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.57 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 10.5% 7.3% 5.8% 3.1% 7.3% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.2% 2.8% 2.1% 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 31 32 32 37 40 44 48 50 44 35 31 29 28 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 33 34 34 39 42 46 50 52 46 37 33 31 30 29 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 37 40 44 48 50 44 35 31 29 28 27 27 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 30 33 37 41 43 37 28 24 22 21 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT