* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/26/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 44 45 46 47 48 48 48 50 50 52 52 56 57 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 44 45 46 47 48 48 48 50 50 52 52 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 41 41 40 39 39 39 40 42 45 49 54 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 15 15 16 17 20 14 17 21 18 15 18 17 16 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 5 3 1 1 0 6 1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 243 231 235 248 254 244 266 227 235 236 263 240 273 252 302 301 333 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.7 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.5 29.4 29.6 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 122 126 129 136 139 139 135 131 132 134 136 144 158 162 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 120 120 125 127 134 135 133 128 123 122 124 124 132 145 147 151 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 48 46 44 46 46 47 47 48 52 52 54 55 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 14 14 13 13 13 11 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 17 3 0 -16 -22 -28 -36 -35 -38 -22 -37 -33 -48 -38 -58 200 MB DIV 24 49 0 -1 -4 -10 14 32 2 -13 7 -2 7 -2 -12 -7 -10 700-850 TADV 35 28 15 8 6 -1 -4 -1 -3 -8 -1 -10 -9 -9 -6 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1777 1681 1609 1549 1453 1196 838 513 281 233 150 189 176 135 86 56 98 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.6 21.0 21.5 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.4 44.4 46.4 48.3 50.3 54.3 57.9 61.2 64.2 67.0 69.5 71.8 74.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 18 16 15 14 13 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 5 17 10 23 16 22 17 16 35 33 20 27 40 49 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -20. -19. -22. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.5 42.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.44 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.48 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 393.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.48 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 11.1% 7.8% 6.1% 3.0% 7.4% 7.8% 8.1% Logistic: 1.3% 3.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.1% 3.2% 2.5% 1.3% 3.8% 3.6% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 44 44 45 46 47 48 48 48 50 50 52 52 56 57 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 43 44 45 46 47 47 47 49 49 51 51 55 56 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 41 42 43 44 44 44 46 46 48 48 52 53 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 37 38 39 39 39 41 41 43 43 47 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT