* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/26/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 55 58 59 60 56 51 48 47 47 45 44 44 46 47 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 55 58 59 60 56 51 48 47 47 45 44 44 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 53 54 54 51 48 45 43 43 43 41 39 37 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 3 3 3 4 7 10 10 9 13 12 17 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 5 4 0 -2 -2 0 4 9 7 4 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 81 5 202 133 210 236 186 264 272 288 309 290 277 276 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.1 26.7 26.5 26.3 24.8 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.6 25.8 26.6 27.1 27.5 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 133 131 129 113 112 113 114 121 123 131 136 140 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 67 66 63 59 54 50 46 44 45 46 44 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 21 22 22 21 19 17 16 15 15 13 11 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 32 35 42 43 27 24 5 -9 -14 -10 -12 -19 -28 -22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 98 94 99 127 16 10 -14 -20 -2 -3 14 4 -35 -34 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 1 -1 -4 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2082 2192 2309 2155 1972 1603 1270 948 653 362 107 164 310 378 576 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.8 131.5 133.1 134.8 136.5 139.9 143.0 146.0 148.8 151.6 154.5 157.4 160.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 13 13 11 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 11. 6. 3. 2. 2. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.1 129.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.53 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.96 9.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.76 7.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.48 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.13 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 38.3% 34.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 23.5% 14.6% 10.9% 1.3% 7.9% 2.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 20.7% 16.4% 3.6% 0.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##