* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/26/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 53 55 56 55 52 49 45 43 41 40 39 39 41 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 53 55 56 55 52 49 45 43 41 40 39 39 41 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 46 47 48 46 44 41 39 37 36 34 32 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 3 1 5 4 7 5 9 14 16 12 15 21 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 2 3 0 -1 -2 -2 -5 0 -1 0 -5 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 326 48 274 262 9 223 168 228 286 270 298 299 300 275 268 272 270 SST (C) 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.5 26.5 25.0 25.2 25.1 24.8 25.1 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.6 27.3 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 127 131 131 115 117 115 112 115 122 122 124 130 138 136 137 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 68 69 66 68 65 63 61 59 56 57 57 53 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 19 19 19 18 16 15 13 13 11 10 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 27 39 37 36 41 29 19 1 -19 -29 -35 -29 -31 -37 -42 -24 -16 200 MB DIV 103 115 103 97 104 38 26 -1 2 0 12 15 13 -9 -23 -22 7 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 2 2 3 3 0 1 1 -1 1 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1972 2074 2184 2301 2164 1798 1471 1185 917 660 409 183 87 304 337 448 654 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.2 129.8 131.4 133.0 134.7 138.1 141.1 143.7 146.2 148.7 151.2 153.7 156.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 17 16 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 2 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 15 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 12. 9. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.0 128.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.99 9.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.77 7.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.72 -6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.07 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 40.5% 33.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 32.7% 23.2% 18.6% 2.6% 18.7% 5.9% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 24.5% 19.0% 6.2% 0.9% 6.2% 2.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/26/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##