* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/26/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 50 49 50 50 53 53 57 57 55 48 47 46 49 52 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 50 49 50 50 53 53 57 57 55 48 47 46 49 52 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 50 50 48 45 41 40 41 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 14 11 11 15 15 17 16 17 30 29 29 28 18 13 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 6 5 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 256 233 242 237 231 254 235 245 243 227 222 235 226 251 259 313 287 SST (C) 25.7 25.9 26.3 26.6 26.5 26.9 27.4 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 114 116 120 123 122 126 132 136 134 131 128 131 133 134 136 147 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 114 118 122 121 125 129 133 127 123 120 120 123 122 124 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -53.4 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 50 48 44 42 44 42 44 46 48 50 51 52 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 14 13 15 13 13 13 12 8 7 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 25 26 27 22 17 4 -9 -15 -33 -29 -25 -25 -18 -22 -30 -54 -41 200 MB DIV 41 35 33 35 1 -16 -26 16 19 10 15 8 1 -8 -14 6 0 700-850 TADV 8 19 25 19 12 6 -3 -4 -9 -5 -10 -9 -15 -10 -8 -8 -1 LAND (KM) 1942 1837 1743 1644 1569 1425 1176 834 536 315 267 217 211 242 183 153 129 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.7 40.6 42.4 44.4 46.4 50.4 54.2 57.9 61.0 63.8 66.3 68.7 71.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 19 19 19 18 17 14 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 4 5 7 19 15 19 17 14 24 34 20 19 31 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -19. -20. -22. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 3. 7. 7. 5. -2. -3. -4. -1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.4 38.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.63 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.44 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.38 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.0% 9.2% 7.1% 0.0% 8.4% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.6% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 2.4% 1.8% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.3% 3.5% 2.7% 0.2% 3.6% 3.7% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/26/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 50 50 49 50 50 53 53 57 57 55 48 47 46 49 52 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 48 49 49 52 52 56 56 54 47 46 45 48 51 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 45 46 46 49 49 53 53 51 44 43 42 45 48 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 40 40 43 43 47 47 45 38 37 36 39 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT