* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/25/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 42 43 44 41 39 36 35 34 33 33 31 29 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 42 43 44 41 39 36 35 34 33 33 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 36 35 33 31 28 27 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 9 8 9 13 11 11 13 14 16 18 21 25 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 2 -5 -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 -3 -6 -9 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 297 284 242 252 252 228 226 209 246 250 273 276 271 270 275 271 272 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.9 26.0 25.4 24.5 24.6 24.4 24.6 25.2 25.4 26.0 26.7 27.2 26.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 127 124 125 119 110 110 108 110 116 118 124 131 136 132 136 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 67 67 67 71 68 64 58 53 49 47 46 43 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 16 17 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 26 31 39 33 30 21 2 -2 -17 -23 -37 -30 -40 -48 -50 -44 -41 200 MB DIV 78 99 115 89 53 89 38 40 8 4 8 7 8 -4 -2 -4 0 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -1 -2 -3 -1 5 2 0 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -5 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 1835 1927 2019 2112 2211 2040 1713 1390 1101 826 544 240 52 48 93 223 472 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.4 17.2 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.6 128.1 129.6 131.1 132.6 135.6 138.6 141.6 144.3 146.9 149.6 152.6 155.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 12 6 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 6. 4. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.2 126.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/25/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 10.5% 4.8% 3.0% 0.9% 4.5% 5.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 10.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1.5% 1.9% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/25/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##