* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/25/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 45 46 45 45 44 41 38 34 31 27 26 23 22 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 45 46 45 45 44 41 38 34 31 27 26 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 41 38 36 33 31 29 26 25 23 22 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 7 10 6 13 9 13 13 17 21 22 26 25 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 -1 1 0 -1 -1 -3 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 293 294 283 248 245 233 254 244 244 251 278 297 295 291 293 292 313 SST (C) 27.2 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.8 24.2 24.8 23.9 24.2 25.0 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.5 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 131 126 124 123 106 113 102 105 114 115 118 122 130 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 7 7 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 63 64 66 67 67 60 57 50 47 45 40 38 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 16 16 15 15 14 13 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 35 38 37 37 7 3 -8 -21 -29 -38 -40 -56 -53 -71 -56 200 MB DIV 60 82 100 119 72 54 43 34 15 13 -10 -24 -17 -6 -27 -16 -22 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -5 -5 -5 -1 1 2 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 -6 -6 -8 LAND (KM) 1702 1810 1899 1989 2087 2186 1869 1554 1266 1014 755 511 272 96 6 67 367 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.0 126.6 128.1 129.7 131.2 134.2 137.1 140.0 142.7 145.1 147.6 150.0 152.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 12 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 9 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. -1. -4. -8. -9. -12. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.2 125.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/25/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 24.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 17.2% 9.3% 5.5% 2.1% 5.8% 4.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 13.9% 3.2% 1.9% 0.7% 2.0% 1.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/25/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##