* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/25/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 49 50 49 52 51 58 59 64 64 60 60 57 59 64 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 49 50 49 52 51 58 59 64 64 60 60 57 59 64 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 50 50 51 52 53 56 59 62 63 61 58 56 58 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 0 5 9 11 9 10 9 11 14 19 24 25 25 20 17 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 3 4 3 0 2 0 2 1 3 0 0 -1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 258 234 217 232 240 229 260 206 237 207 214 221 233 221 242 223 198 SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 114 116 119 122 125 129 136 136 131 128 130 131 130 133 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 111 114 117 120 122 126 132 130 123 119 119 120 118 120 122 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -53.3 -53.9 -53.4 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 13 12 13 12 12 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 66 65 60 58 55 51 47 42 43 42 44 45 47 50 50 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 17 18 15 17 15 17 16 18 17 16 17 14 15 18 850 MB ENV VOR 25 25 21 24 27 19 11 -4 4 -15 -14 -17 -22 -7 -25 -30 -47 200 MB DIV 35 43 44 13 0 -2 6 7 27 32 16 24 11 3 7 -7 24 700-850 TADV 1 0 10 15 23 15 10 2 -5 -4 -2 -7 -5 -4 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1900 2061 1957 1853 1759 1589 1468 1224 936 611 381 292 294 267 343 371 380 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.2 36.9 38.6 40.4 42.3 46.2 49.9 53.5 56.9 60.2 63.0 65.6 67.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 17 18 18 18 18 17 16 15 13 11 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 4 9 12 19 16 21 16 18 23 15 18 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -8. -6. -10. -8. -9. -12. -11. -14. -13. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 2. 1. 8. 9. 14. 14. 10. 10. 7. 9. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.7 35.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.83 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 345.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.53 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.33 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 14.5% 10.2% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 5.4% 2.7% 1.5% 1.0% 3.4% 2.3% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.8% 4.3% 3.1% 0.3% 1.2% 4.6% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/25/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 49 49 50 49 52 51 58 59 64 64 60 60 57 59 64 18HR AGO 50 49 48 48 49 48 51 50 57 58 63 63 59 59 56 58 63 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 47 46 49 48 55 56 61 61 57 57 54 56 61 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 40 43 42 49 50 55 55 51 51 48 50 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT