* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/08/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 49 52 55 56 56 60 61 64 66 67 69 70 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 49 52 55 55 43 50 51 54 56 57 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 40 43 45 46 46 37 40 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 11 8 13 17 18 18 26 21 24 18 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 3 1 2 1 4 5 4 5 2 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 313 339 306 295 316 288 274 279 263 264 267 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.7 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 146 152 152 149 144 142 143 148 137 142 142 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 146 152 152 149 144 142 143 143 127 128 126 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 10 12 12 13 13 12 11 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 58 61 59 55 53 53 52 60 59 61 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 11 9 9 8 7 9 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 49 46 33 23 9 7 -21 -36 -73 -69 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -9 11 17 19 29 40 70 58 64 20 45 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -4 -3 0 7 7 5 5 6 2 9 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 730 653 629 598 401 433 202 9 67 -20 102 220 188 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.7 11.3 12.1 12.9 14.6 16.1 17.6 19.2 20.9 22.6 24.1 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.4 50.8 53.2 55.6 58.0 62.7 67.1 71.3 74.3 76.0 77.1 77.7 78.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 24 25 25 24 24 22 19 14 11 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 38 27 43 33 29 18 25 35 19 28 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 17. 20. 21. 21. 25. 26. 29. 31. 32. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.1 48.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.68 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.51 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.72 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.83 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 16.0% 10.6% 7.7% 4.6% 8.9% 10.4% 12.2% Logistic: 4.5% 15.8% 7.9% 4.0% 4.1% 11.2% 13.1% 14.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 15.1% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% Consensus: 3.5% 15.6% 7.6% 4.0% 2.9% 6.9% 8.0% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 42 49 52 55 55 43 50 51 54 56 57 59 60 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 47 50 53 53 41 48 49 52 54 55 57 58 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 42 45 48 48 36 43 44 47 49 50 52 53 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 34 37 40 40 28 35 36 39 41 42 44 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT