* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/07/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 64 64 57 50 39 30 23 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 64 64 57 50 39 30 23 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 63 62 61 59 53 43 34 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 5 1 9 12 12 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 16 354 345 86 124 131 145 143 143 180 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.1 25.7 24.8 23.5 22.5 21.9 20.7 20.7 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 134 120 111 97 87 80 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 70 67 68 68 66 62 60 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 12 9 8 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 39 34 18 13 20 8 1 0 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 12 36 17 1 16 17 12 -15 1 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -5 -9 -8 -8 -4 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 147 204 284 193 112 133 165 305 371 445 544 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.4 21.9 23.0 23.9 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.7 108.4 109.2 109.9 111.7 113.6 115.5 117.1 118.4 119.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -25. -28. -32. -35. -39. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -8. -15. -26. -35. -42. -47. -49. -51. -52. -54. -56. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.7 106.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/07/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.33 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.82 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.26 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 24.7% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 8.8% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052013 ERICK 07/07/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##