* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/07/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 69 67 63 57 49 42 35 29 27 25 24 23 22 22 V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 69 67 63 57 49 42 35 29 27 25 24 23 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 68 66 58 50 41 33 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 4 3 3 4 10 8 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -1 2 1 0 1 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 35 58 60 40 127 147 157 151 171 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.8 27.8 27.0 25.8 24.3 23.0 22.6 21.7 21.0 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 142 133 121 105 92 88 78 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 69 68 69 66 68 67 66 61 58 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 43 36 35 20 16 14 4 -3 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 25 31 40 19 5 18 0 2 -6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -6 -12 -7 -7 -2 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 137 164 211 287 206 121 182 249 381 478 599 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.2 22.2 23.2 24.0 24.4 24.6 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.2 107.0 107.7 108.5 109.2 110.9 112.7 114.6 116.5 118.2 120.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -11. -16. -21. -26. -29. -32. -35. -38. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -13. -21. -28. -35. -41. -43. -45. -46. -47. -48. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.9 106.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/07/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.73 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.48 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 23.3% 18.8% 14.6% 12.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.5% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 9.0% 6.9% 5.2% 4.1% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052013 ERICK 07/07/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##