* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 71 70 67 60 51 44 36 30 24 20 19 17 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 71 70 67 60 51 44 36 30 24 20 19 17 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 68 67 61 52 43 34 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 7 6 5 8 8 10 6 4 4 9 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 0 -1 0 0 1 1 3 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 54 42 36 71 85 119 145 109 115 127 191 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.0 24.7 23.6 22.2 22.4 21.8 21.5 21.1 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 148 143 141 133 110 98 83 85 79 76 71 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 70 70 70 71 69 66 63 63 58 52 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 44 36 38 16 18 4 0 -5 -1 0 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 39 24 37 45 18 18 -9 23 -7 0 -3 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -2 -5 -8 -5 -6 -3 -1 2 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 113 122 145 195 273 133 171 211 336 424 527 676 827 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.7 22.6 23.4 24.0 24.5 24.8 24.8 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.1 106.8 107.6 108.3 110.0 111.8 113.7 115.5 117.3 119.1 120.9 122.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 10 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -9. -14. -18. -22. -27. -33. -36. -39. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -10. -19. -26. -34. -40. -46. -50. -51. -53. -54. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.4 105.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/07/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.42 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.60 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.42 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 22.5% 21.6% 17.7% 12.8% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 6.8% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 9.9% 8.3% 6.4% 4.4% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052013 ERICK 07/07/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##