* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 25 25 21 21 19 16 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -4 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 107 111 105 92 93 94 107 104 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 126 125 125 123 122 121 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 48 51 54 59 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 33 29 23 25 33 22 15 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 27 27 26 -2 -5 3 16 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 731 736 741 748 756 757 764 771 780 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.2 113.3 113.5 113.6 113.8 114.1 114.5 114.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 23. 23. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -5. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 113.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/06/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/06/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##