* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 69 69 68 64 59 53 46 41 37 34 32 30 29 28 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 69 69 68 64 59 53 46 41 37 34 32 30 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 66 66 64 60 55 49 41 34 28 23 20 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 11 11 18 13 9 3 7 7 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 2 0 0 2 0 5 1 0 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 77 66 70 91 92 93 61 104 61 89 89 116 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.2 27.0 26.1 24.9 23.9 24.0 23.1 23.0 23.8 22.7 22.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 153 149 146 134 125 112 102 102 93 92 101 90 89 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 81 80 76 73 70 65 63 67 63 63 57 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 9 10 8 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 40 53 47 45 56 25 21 17 2 -8 -18 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 64 67 67 74 26 10 25 -18 0 -6 -3 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 -1 -4 -4 -12 -11 -5 -6 0 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 204 176 165 165 167 210 323 263 309 372 496 636 782 983 1203 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.7 19.7 20.6 21.5 22.2 22.7 23.0 23.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.2 103.9 104.6 105.3 106.9 108.7 110.6 112.6 114.6 116.6 118.6 120.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 20 18 14 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 14. 13. 9. 4. -2. -9. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.0 102.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/05/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.63 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.28 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.86 -7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.85 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.9% 49.2% 31.9% 23.5% 15.4% 20.5% 14.9% 9.4% Logistic: 32.1% 45.6% 26.8% 16.3% 7.0% 8.8% 2.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 17.1% 42.7% 21.9% 15.0% 5.6% 7.2% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.7% 45.8% 26.9% 18.3% 9.3% 12.2% 6.0% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052013 ERICK 07/05/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##