* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 30 31 33 33 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 30 31 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 15 17 20 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -4 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 149 133 128 118 112 124 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 135 134 134 132 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 48 49 51 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 50 43 54 59 58 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 24 28 23 20 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 666 677 692 704 717 751 787 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.0 112.4 112.7 113.0 113.5 114.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 111.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/05/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.72 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.18 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 16.3% 14.6% 11.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 3.2% 2.8% 0.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 6.5% 5.8% 3.9% 0.5% 3.7% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##