* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 54 57 65 68 68 66 61 56 50 45 44 43 42 42 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 54 57 65 68 68 66 61 56 50 45 44 43 42 42 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 52 56 62 65 64 61 56 49 41 35 30 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 11 12 14 12 10 9 9 12 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 3 3 1 -1 -4 1 1 -2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 62 66 71 74 75 68 63 85 41 57 78 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.1 27.0 26.2 25.4 24.5 24.1 23.5 24.1 24.5 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 157 155 153 145 133 125 117 108 104 98 104 108 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 81 81 81 82 73 72 64 64 62 57 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 22 41 50 47 50 28 30 24 10 -6 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 49 53 77 57 41 33 10 18 15 7 -13 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -3 -2 -3 -4 -8 -8 -6 -10 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 234 214 201 190 173 187 229 312 334 335 450 557 753 956 1153 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.5 102.2 102.9 103.7 105.3 106.9 108.4 110.2 112.1 114.1 116.4 118.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 24 24 21 19 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. 11. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 25. 28. 28. 26. 21. 16. 10. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.9 100.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/05/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.45 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.50 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.88 -6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.66 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.62 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 33.1% 24.4% 19.9% 13.7% 19.8% 16.5% 12.7% Logistic: 25.0% 54.1% 37.8% 24.4% 8.7% 28.6% 14.9% 4.4% Bayesian: 9.4% 64.6% 41.5% 25.7% 6.2% 34.0% 8.6% 0.2% Consensus: 16.5% 50.6% 34.5% 23.3% 9.5% 27.4% 13.3% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052013 ERICK 07/05/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##