* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 25 23 22 22 22 21 21 22 24 26 27 28 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 25 23 22 22 22 21 21 22 24 26 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 24 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 19 17 20 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -4 -1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 149 143 134 124 128 119 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 134 132 131 128 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 43 43 46 47 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 46 33 52 56 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 22 12 5 12 13 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 650 652 657 663 672 700 734 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.4 111.9 112.3 112.7 113.1 113.8 114.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.2 111.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/05/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.71 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.19 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.60 -3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 14.8% 12.8% 9.2% 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.6% 4.8% 3.2% 0.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/05/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##