* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/05/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 24 22 21 23 22 20 18 18 18 20 22 23 24 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 24 22 21 23 22 20 18 18 18 20 22 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 22 21 19 18 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 13 15 18 24 18 16 16 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 2 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 132 130 134 132 122 112 108 73 84 72 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.8 27.2 27.1 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 135 136 135 132 130 134 133 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 42 41 40 43 43 49 48 53 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 9 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 36 42 48 37 58 57 48 48 50 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 19 26 21 21 12 -15 -12 0 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 627 630 639 644 653 670 710 775 848 926 1008 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.3 111.8 112.3 112.7 113.6 114.5 115.5 116.6 117.9 119.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 1 3 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 110.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/05/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.72 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.15 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 -3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.66 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 12.7% 10.1% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.7% 3.7% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/05/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##