* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/04/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 43 43 44 43 41 41 39 37 36 34 37 40 43 45 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 43 43 44 43 41 41 39 37 36 34 37 40 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 50 45 43 41 40 40 39 38 37 35 34 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 10 17 17 18 17 14 13 15 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 0 -2 -6 0 0 2 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 94 137 138 132 133 119 115 112 106 120 89 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.8 26.9 27.0 25.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 134 137 139 140 140 137 130 131 133 120 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 51 52 50 49 50 47 49 51 48 49 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 58 50 63 58 53 42 49 47 46 32 29 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 21 5 -12 -5 -6 31 -3 5 -14 -4 -3 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 393 445 498 548 598 648 665 700 753 830 904 998 1120 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.5 17.3 17.2 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.7 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.7 110.2 111.3 112.5 113.8 115.0 116.2 117.7 119.4 121.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 4 5 6 7 7 6 2 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -13. -10. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.6 108.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/04/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.51 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.34 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.48 -2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.94 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.64 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 15.3% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.3% 5.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/04/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##