* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 71 71 72 70 68 65 61 56 52 49 46 47 50 53 55 V (KT) LAND 70 70 71 71 72 70 68 65 61 56 52 49 46 47 50 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 72 71 71 70 70 68 64 60 56 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 10 9 8 10 14 13 18 19 13 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 3 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 97 116 99 117 126 114 122 111 119 122 124 116 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.8 27.1 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 130 132 135 139 140 140 137 131 130 133 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 56 53 53 50 48 50 50 51 49 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 44 61 64 60 57 59 44 40 37 30 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -1 38 13 3 9 4 12 -14 4 -6 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 356 399 442 491 539 633 658 687 725 763 829 888 949 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.7 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.4 108.7 109.2 109.6 110.6 111.7 112.8 113.9 114.9 116.0 117.3 118.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 3 5 7 7 7 6 2 1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. -0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -21. -24. -23. -20. -17. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.9 108.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/03/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 430.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.4% 2.7% 1.5% 2.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 7.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.8% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##