* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 67 67 66 62 58 54 50 45 41 39 40 42 44 46 V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 67 67 66 62 58 54 50 45 41 39 40 42 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 66 66 66 64 62 59 56 52 48 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 10 10 12 15 15 15 19 25 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -2 -5 -2 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 104 110 103 107 137 132 150 129 128 128 136 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.7 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 130 130 133 136 137 137 137 133 129 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 66 63 58 61 57 57 54 53 51 51 51 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 10 11 10 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 40 44 60 67 53 60 43 49 37 30 32 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -4 -14 22 13 8 18 0 22 10 13 -9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 3 0 -3 -2 0 -2 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 276 308 339 379 418 501 581 604 626 659 710 783 843 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.1 17.9 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.6 107.8 108.2 108.5 109.3 110.3 111.3 112.3 113.4 114.5 115.8 117.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 2 2 4 5 5 5 6 4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -26. -25. -23. -21. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.2 107.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/03/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.35 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 333.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.50 -2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 22.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.0% 1.5% 0.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 8.0% 5.3% 0.3% 0.6% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/03/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##