* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/02/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 73 74 75 70 70 67 63 62 56 54 54 55 57 59 V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 73 74 75 70 70 67 63 62 56 54 54 55 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 71 72 73 72 69 68 68 65 62 59 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 10 10 10 10 19 15 19 17 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 107 98 107 115 102 94 128 112 124 113 96 111 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 132 131 128 132 136 138 136 135 132 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 62 61 60 58 59 58 60 60 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 14 11 14 14 13 14 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 34 37 40 48 69 57 74 69 67 73 70 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 33 12 -5 -8 22 10 25 11 28 30 18 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 3 3 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 247 267 288 317 346 428 516 596 657 702 751 819 896 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.0 17.7 17.4 17.1 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.3 107.5 107.8 108.1 108.9 109.7 110.4 111.2 112.1 113.1 114.4 115.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 4 2 1 3 6 6 6 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 0. 4. 4. 3. 4. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 5. 5. 2. -2. -3. -9. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.4 107.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/02/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.37 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.48 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.81 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 23.4% 23.0% 19.1% 13.6% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 6.5% 5.2% 2.4% 3.7% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.8% 10.6% 9.4% 7.2% 5.8% 5.8% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/02/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##