* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 55 56 60 60 61 62 60 60 59 53 54 55 57 60 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 55 56 60 60 61 62 60 60 59 53 54 55 57 60 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 53 54 55 56 56 57 57 56 53 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 12 11 10 9 9 12 20 16 13 22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -5 -7 -3 0 -1 -2 -6 0 3 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 113 81 89 98 111 102 125 117 126 123 105 103 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 133 133 132 134 137 139 137 134 131 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -51.7 -52.4 -51.3 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 61 63 62 58 57 58 55 56 59 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 10 10 10 13 12 12 13 12 13 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 15 29 32 33 58 57 62 73 60 74 65 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -5 21 2 -1 36 12 31 18 42 22 30 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 3 2 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 268 288 309 333 358 431 513 580 662 685 727 795 872 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.1 107.3 107.6 107.8 108.5 109.3 110.0 110.9 111.9 113.0 114.3 115.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 4 4 3 5 6 7 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 5. 6. 6. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 5. 5. 6. 7. 5. 5. 4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.7 106.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/02/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.48 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.44 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.57 -3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 21.2% 16.2% 11.7% 9.7% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 8.0% 5.9% 4.1% 3.6% 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##