* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 69 69 69 67 66 62 59 55 52 49 49 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 69 69 69 67 66 62 59 55 52 49 49 49 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 66 67 66 63 61 59 58 56 54 51 48 45 41 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 13 12 12 4 4 2 6 7 9 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 1 0 -1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 115 124 144 156 147 146 81 91 145 171 149 145 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.6 25.5 24.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 133 131 127 122 120 120 124 124 123 122 118 117 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 61 60 61 57 59 57 54 50 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 12 22 32 40 51 35 40 41 27 22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 -9 -23 -24 13 15 35 2 7 -6 -5 -8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 2 3 5 2 2 0 -1 -2 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 232 256 281 308 335 381 427 474 482 503 559 654 769 861 962 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.1 107.5 107.9 108.2 108.8 109.3 109.8 110.6 111.5 112.8 114.3 115.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 4 5 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -10. -11. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.1 106.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/02/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.41 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.23 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.15 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.90 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 22.5% 21.4% 17.6% 12.4% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 8.9% 5.4% 2.8% 4.6% 2.8% 1.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 10.9% 9.0% 6.8% 5.7% 6.3% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##