* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042013 07/01/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 43 46 46 48 51 55 56 59 61 60 56 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 40 43 43 46 46 48 51 55 56 59 61 60 56 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 47 48 49 49 49 49 49 48 46 44 43 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 13 16 11 9 8 4 6 2 3 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 148 148 126 126 128 137 115 106 84 152 118 184 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.0 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.7 25.8 25.5 25.3 24.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 140 138 133 128 120 117 119 120 119 120 117 115 109 100 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 63 61 60 62 57 59 60 55 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 6 8 7 7 9 10 9 11 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 7 14 18 24 25 46 53 52 42 51 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 14 3 35 -3 -19 45 1 15 0 2 -18 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -5 -3 -2 3 7 1 -1 -1 -4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 208 204 188 195 214 256 301 360 427 434 454 505 586 692 788 886 999 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.4 105.9 106.4 106.8 107.5 108.1 108.8 109.5 110.3 111.3 112.5 113.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 13 9 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 0. 3. 3. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 6. 6. 8. 11. 15. 16. 19. 21. 20. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.0 104.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042013 DALILA 07/01/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.41 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.53 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 20.0% 19.2% 15.4% 10.4% 15.5% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 8.4% 5.4% 2.0% 3.5% 2.8% 3.6% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 10.4% 8.2% 5.8% 4.7% 6.1% 5.9% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042013 DALILA 07/01/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##