* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/27/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 25 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 6 6 5 2 3 1 5 8 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 -1 -2 -1 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 98 139 157 200 156 215 242 286 296 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.4 21.1 21.2 21.9 21.6 20.9 21.6 22.0 22.7 22.4 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 74 75 82 78 71 78 82 89 86 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 69 67 66 61 63 57 55 51 47 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 16 15 13 12 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 101 86 73 71 68 49 47 30 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -3 -5 -11 -2 -11 -13 -13 -8 -14 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 4 0 0 1 2 1 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1047 1126 1218 1321 1429 1649 1860 2004 1898 1685 1484 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.8 123.3 124.7 126.1 127.4 129.9 132.4 134.6 136.7 138.8 140.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. -2. -7. -11. -15. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -20. -25. -28. -31. -34. -37. -40. -43. -45. -47. -46. -45. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.7 121.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/27/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/27/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##