* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/26/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 42 35 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 48 42 35 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 47 41 36 31 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 7 7 4 5 8 7 7 9 14 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 7 2 5 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 137 158 177 175 189 213 261 293 322 302 326 317 309 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.0 23.0 22.5 21.3 20.6 21.7 20.9 21.1 21.6 21.9 22.4 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 104 94 88 76 68 79 71 72 77 80 85 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 79 76 74 72 68 62 60 57 54 50 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 24 22 21 17 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 129 131 126 119 108 70 53 45 32 28 20 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 45 19 -2 -15 -19 -2 -8 -7 -16 -1 -15 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 7 8 0 0 7 8 4 9 8 4 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 744 779 839 922 997 1141 1353 1574 1766 1894 2019 1881 1727 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.7 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 117.2 118.6 120.0 121.3 124.1 126.8 129.3 131.6 133.6 135.4 136.9 138.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -13. -16. -19. -21. -24. -27. -31. -35. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. -16. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -21. -23. -25. -26. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -20. -26. -36. -43. -50. -56. -61. -66. -68. -71. -72. -72. -73. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.0 115.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/26/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/26/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##