* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/26/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 74 68 63 48 35 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 76 74 68 63 48 35 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 76 73 66 58 44 33 27 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 8 7 8 6 3 5 7 9 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 6 7 4 0 3 -3 0 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 89 103 140 151 147 186 305 299 328 295 309 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.0 24.6 23.9 22.9 21.4 21.1 22.1 21.0 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.3 22.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 114 110 103 92 77 73 84 72 75 80 84 86 84 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 77 75 70 67 64 63 61 58 53 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 31 30 26 26 22 19 16 15 13 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 117 131 136 136 106 91 69 65 52 46 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 72 63 38 3 -22 -18 -22 -6 -1 -11 -11 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -1 5 10 3 2 3 6 6 4 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 661 714 765 807 870 1043 1200 1400 1607 1805 1938 1951 1754 1597 1430 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.5 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.0 21.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.1 116.3 117.6 118.9 121.6 124.3 127.0 129.5 131.8 134.0 136.2 138.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 7 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -20. -25. -31. -36. -40. -44. -48. -52. -57. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. -1. -0. -3. -7. -13. -17. -20. -21. -22. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -7. -12. -27. -40. -50. -59. -65. -70. -74. -76. -77. -76. -77. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.2 113.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/26/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/26/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##