* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022013 06/18/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 28 33 35 36 39 41 43 43 44 46 48 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 29 30 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 29 28 28 27 25 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 16 15 13 6 7 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 0 -1 -3 0 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 246 247 245 241 241 206 232 316 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 28.8 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.4 26.8 26.1 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 148 143 147 150 140 119 111 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 139 133 136 137 126 105 99 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 7 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 70 67 69 70 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -23 -25 -23 -9 2 10 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 4 15 28 41 43 29 40 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 -6 -6 -1 -6 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -56 -28 20 66 56 22 -44 -99 -147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.4 93.3 94.0 94.8 95.9 96.7 97.3 97.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 6 5 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 17 13 14 14 10 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 1. -2. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 10. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 19. 21. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.1 91.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 TWO 06/18/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.43 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.84 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.87 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.5% 9.6% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 12.4% 6.2% 2.3% 0.8% 5.5% 5.4% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.4% 9.2% 5.3% 3.1% 0.3% 1.8% 4.7% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022013 TWO 06/18/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 TWO 06/18/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 29 30 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 27 28 30 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 24 21 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT