* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022013 06/17/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 35 35 38 41 43 45 44 45 46 47 49 51 54 54 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 31 35 37 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 27 27 27 30 30 30 26 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 17 18 17 11 15 10 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 0 -3 3 0 1 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 232 249 256 249 256 238 242 260 259 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.7 29.3 29.8 29.0 28.8 29.1 28.6 26.9 26.2 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 147 157 166 151 147 151 143 120 113 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 141 151 160 143 135 137 128 107 101 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 10 9 10 10 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 63 64 64 66 67 64 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 8 8 7 8 10 8 8 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 0 -14 -17 -15 -11 -2 2 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 34 32 23 7 22 23 31 16 36 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 -3 -6 -5 -3 -3 -3 -8 -4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 39 -82 -177 -84 -33 71 77 43 -27 -97 -164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.1 89.1 90.1 91.1 92.1 93.6 94.8 95.8 96.7 97.6 98.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 9 7 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 31 6 5 20 15 15 11 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 0. -2. -3. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. 21. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 88.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 TWO 06/17/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.43 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.80 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.91 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.1% 9.9% 6.8% 3.7% 8.1% 9.4% 12.6% Logistic: 6.0% 24.4% 14.9% 7.3% 3.3% 10.9% 15.7% 21.8% Bayesian: 1.4% 9.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 2.7% Consensus: 4.4% 16.2% 9.1% 4.9% 2.4% 6.6% 8.5% 12.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022013 TWO 06/17/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 TWO 06/17/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 27 27 27 31 35 37 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 33 37 39 35 31 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 30 34 36 32 28 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 24 28 30 26 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT