* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022013 05/29/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 74 76 77 77 75 72 72 72 72 73 73 72 71 74 75 V (KT) LAND 65 50 41 35 32 34 31 29 28 28 29 30 30 29 28 30 32 V (KT) LGEM 65 52 41 35 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 7 5 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 55 147 45 80 134 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.9 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 138 133 129 130 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 74 70 66 62 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 105 100 79 88 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 107 82 54 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 6 6 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 23 -51 -126 -79 -32 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.1 93.9 93.8 93.8 93.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 5 2 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.8 94.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022013 BARBARA 05/29/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.39 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.81 10.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.62 7.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 -8.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 9.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.89 7.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.21 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 42.1% 52.1% 44.6% 34.5% 22.5% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 39.0% 49.5% 48.9% 35.1% 16.5% 22.6% 5.2% 2.4% Bayesian: 11.0% 22.7% 14.2% 10.4% 0.8% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 30.7% 41.4% 35.9% 26.7% 13.3% 16.5% 1.8% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022013 BARBARA 05/29/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##