* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/16/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 49 52 55 55 51 51 47 43 39 38 37 36 35 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 49 52 55 55 51 51 47 43 39 38 37 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 46 45 43 41 39 35 31 25 21 18 16 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 13 13 7 14 20 18 21 15 18 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 10 10 2 2 6 6 6 9 11 4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 261 259 262 257 211 190 213 218 222 206 242 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.8 27.3 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 156 153 145 144 140 140 135 128 127 127 129 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 68 70 68 66 66 61 62 60 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 13 14 16 15 14 15 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -6 -2 -10 -11 -11 -17 -8 -15 -12 -4 -1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 96 76 88 80 114 143 120 129 100 62 12 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 3 0 0 5 4 7 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1092 1101 1115 1131 1144 1177 1218 1250 1239 1231 1244 1273 1345 1443 1544 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.6 9.9 10.3 10.6 11.3 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.2 109.0 109.8 110.6 112.1 113.3 114.5 115.6 116.5 117.3 118.1 119.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 29 31 33 33 23 16 10 9 6 3 3 2 2 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 17. 16. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 3. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 6. 6. 2. -2. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 9.2 107.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/16/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.19 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.64 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.43 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 22.9% 22.7% 18.6% 12.8% 20.8% 27.3% 20.3% Logistic: 5.2% 17.3% 10.9% 5.2% 0.9% 3.8% 1.7% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 10.9% 3.1% 0.5% 0.0% 3.2% 2.6% 0.2% Consensus: 5.9% 17.0% 12.2% 8.1% 4.5% 9.3% 10.5% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012013 ALVIN 05/16/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##