* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WANDA AL212021 11/03/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 51 54 53 52 53 55 55 61 56 54 51 46 44 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 51 54 53 52 53 55 55 61 56 54 51 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 48 49 50 50 51 54 58 64 67 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 11 13 21 24 18 10 15 21 37 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 0 -1 -5 -1 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 266 254 230 224 196 214 203 253 269 206 200 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.6 21.1 20.7 20.8 20.5 20.4 20.6 21.6 22.0 21.7 20.4 17.9 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 83 80 80 78 78 80 84 83 85 83 78 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 73 71 70 68 68 71 73 72 74 75 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -55.3 -56.4 -57.1 -58.7 -58.6 -59.5 -61.0 -61.1 -61.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.9 1.0 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 3 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 56 54 51 54 46 43 48 54 63 58 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 20 21 21 18 17 15 16 15 22 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 147 124 112 85 68 26 8 -18 11 21 27 -38 -119 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 19 20 32 38 79 34 -11 5 29 55 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 2 0 1 -6 -8 0 0 -8 -43 -36 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1428 1368 1313 1267 1223 1263 1422 1593 1684 1711 1719 1656 1097 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.3 39.3 40.2 40.9 41.5 41.9 40.9 39.0 38.2 38.8 40.8 44.0 47.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.9 39.7 39.5 39.6 39.6 38.7 37.3 36.6 36.1 35.1 33.3 29.6 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 8 7 4 4 8 7 3 8 17 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -4. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 28. 26. 22. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 7. 8. 10. 10. 16. 11. 9. 6. 1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 38.3 39.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212021 WANDA 11/03/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.67 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.15 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 13.8% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.7% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL212021 WANDA 11/03/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212021 WANDA 11/03/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 49 51 54 53 52 53 55 55 61 56 54 51 46 44 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 49 52 51 50 51 53 53 59 54 52 49 44 42 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 48 47 46 47 49 49 55 50 48 45 40 38 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 39 38 39 41 41 47 42 40 37 32 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT