* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICTOR AL202021 09/30/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 50 53 55 58 55 53 49 48 41 37 36 36 37 41 41 V (KT) LAND 40 44 50 53 55 58 55 53 49 48 41 37 36 36 37 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 50 53 55 52 48 44 39 34 30 27 26 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 2 3 8 16 21 24 28 28 25 24 27 20 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 12 16 17 17 8 9 4 9 5 5 0 -3 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 24 355 60 90 166 152 176 197 220 227 233 234 254 228 228 218 222 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.7 25.7 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 145 142 141 138 136 135 130 133 133 132 130 126 121 114 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 145 142 141 136 134 133 126 128 126 121 115 109 105 102 93 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.3 -56.2 -56.9 -57.2 -58.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 67 64 64 65 67 65 61 57 53 53 48 45 45 40 38 41 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 23 22 22 18 16 13 13 10 7 5 4 2 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 64 70 62 60 59 66 62 73 36 13 -31 -45 -85 -79 -98 -94 -98 200 MB DIV 112 101 130 119 80 45 12 0 23 42 51 10 14 11 11 40 47 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -6 -1 4 9 5 12 18 27 22 16 12 -3 -8 -6 -10 LAND (KM) 1168 1251 1338 1429 1514 1641 1768 1925 2086 2192 2329 2406 2429 2222 2095 1945 1835 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.1 11.2 12.5 14.4 16.7 19.1 21.9 24.6 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.8 27.7 28.7 29.6 30.6 32.2 33.7 35.4 36.9 38.3 39.5 40.3 40.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 11 13 14 14 15 14 12 9 11 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 18 14 11 10 10 14 8 15 14 19 16 7 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -4. -8. -13. -14. -20. -25. -28. -29. -30. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 13. 15. 18. 15. 13. 9. 8. 1. -3. -4. -4. -3. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 8.5 26.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 VICTOR 09/30/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.96 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.64 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 45.1% 30.8% 10.0% 8.5% 22.9% 24.5% 17.8% Logistic: 16.5% 39.7% 23.1% 11.1% 5.5% 9.7% 7.2% 2.4% Bayesian: 11.0% 21.6% 11.0% 0.7% 0.4% 6.8% 5.4% 1.0% Consensus: 11.8% 35.5% 21.7% 7.3% 4.8% 13.1% 12.4% 7.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 VICTOR 09/30/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 50 53 55 58 55 53 49 48 41 37 36 36 37 41 41 18HR AGO 40 39 45 48 50 53 50 48 44 43 36 32 31 31 32 36 36 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 44 41 39 35 34 27 23 22 22 23 27 27 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 35 32 30 26 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT