* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY AL202021 09/29/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 54 61 62 61 57 51 44 41 42 49 52 51 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 54 61 62 61 57 51 44 41 42 49 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 42 46 47 46 44 38 32 26 23 22 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 5 8 6 9 9 17 26 37 43 40 29 4 6 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 12 11 8 6 10 14 20 18 15 14 4 -6 -1 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 330 180 235 198 170 153 125 191 201 214 227 234 244 233 215 126 212 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 145 145 145 146 141 138 136 135 133 134 136 135 134 132 127 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 145 145 145 146 141 138 135 134 129 129 129 126 120 117 112 99 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.6 -55.0 -55.4 -55.4 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 3 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 63 63 60 57 57 54 49 47 40 38 37 40 36 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 20 23 24 23 21 19 17 15 13 14 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 42 49 65 71 72 64 71 79 103 88 63 32 0 -73 14 94 127 200 MB DIV 146 163 177 115 98 113 101 95 74 62 29 28 15 7 32 26 45 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -11 -9 -8 -6 4 7 14 21 25 21 10 -2 5 -24 -55 LAND (KM) 929 998 1074 1154 1237 1441 1617 1779 1964 2012 2088 2208 2385 2454 2237 1986 1711 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.5 8.8 9.2 9.5 10.4 11.3 12.5 14.3 16.3 18.6 21.1 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.2 25.1 26.0 26.9 27.8 30.0 32.0 33.8 35.9 37.7 39.2 40.6 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 14 13 14 15 14 11 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 18 19 19 11 10 11 16 13 15 17 25 24 13 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCL INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 2. -3. -8. -11. -11. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 3. 1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -12. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 31. 32. 31. 27. 21. 14. 11. 12. 19. 22. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.1 24.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202021 TWENTY 09/29/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.92 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.78 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 139.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.78 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 39.8% 23.8% 8.2% 7.8% 17.5% 23.9% 35.7% Logistic: 19.9% 46.7% 32.2% 20.6% 7.0% 8.2% 4.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 3.2% 3.5% 4.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 10.1% 30.0% 20.1% 9.8% 5.1% 8.9% 9.6% 12.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202021 TWENTY 09/29/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 46 54 61 62 61 57 51 44 41 42 49 52 51 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 42 50 57 58 57 53 47 40 37 38 45 48 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 43 50 51 50 46 40 33 30 31 38 41 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 33 40 41 40 36 30 23 20 21 28 31 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT