* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SAM AL182021 09/29/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 113 113 110 111 111 114 114 113 113 109 101 91 78 69 63 V (KT) LAND 115 113 113 113 110 111 111 114 114 113 113 109 101 91 78 69 63 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 111 110 109 108 110 107 104 94 85 77 69 58 50 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 4 6 11 7 14 8 11 11 7 13 35 59 69 69 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -2 0 0 1 0 4 5 0 -2 -6 -6 4 8 9 SHEAR DIR 227 236 214 209 220 191 214 151 176 157 175 233 257 247 242 233 227 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.7 28.3 28.2 26.7 26.3 25.7 24.0 20.3 19.1 15.3 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 150 152 149 145 148 142 142 124 120 113 101 84 81 73 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 139 142 139 134 136 128 127 110 105 98 88 76 74 69 67 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -53.9 -54.6 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -52.7 -51.1 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 46 48 50 50 55 61 60 51 49 54 55 53 57 62 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 25 22 27 29 33 34 36 38 37 36 34 33 33 37 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -17 -9 0 -5 12 14 26 29 32 52 104 110 85 114 159 176 200 MB DIV 23 8 15 34 27 69 55 104 81 83 50 46 24 42 21 14 6 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 6 6 10 5 -2 -27 -33 -41 -89 -79 -87 -107 LAND (KM) 1025 962 893 825 768 729 868 1105 1419 1249 1058 867 672 648 873 1198 1463 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.2 20.9 22.7 25.1 27.7 30.5 33.4 36.4 38.9 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.9 56.6 57.3 58.1 58.9 60.5 61.5 61.9 61.2 59.2 56.4 53.4 50.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 18 18 17 18 21 23 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 53 60 65 72 69 48 35 17 14 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -0. -1. -5. -12. -22. -29. -38. -45. -50. -57. -64. -70. -74. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 8. 4. -1. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 7. 12. 13. 16. 18. 16. 13. 10. 7. 6. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -5. -4. -4. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -14. -24. -37. -46. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.6 55.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 SAM 09/29/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 789.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182021 SAM 09/29/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 SAM 09/29/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 29( 66) 29( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 13 14( 25) 18( 39) 48( 68) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 113 113 113 110 111 111 114 114 113 113 109 101 91 78 69 63 18HR AGO 115 114 114 114 111 112 112 115 115 114 114 110 102 92 79 70 64 12HR AGO 115 112 111 111 108 109 109 112 112 111 111 107 99 89 76 67 61 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 102 103 103 106 106 105 105 101 93 83 70 61 55 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 97 97 100 100 99 99 95 87 77 64 55 49 IN 6HR 115 113 104 98 95 95 95 98 98 97 97 93 85 75 62 53 47 IN 12HR 115 113 113 104 98 94 94 97 97 96 96 92 84 74 61 52 46