* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182021 09/23/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 49 56 64 68 71 70 71 76 76 77 80 83 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 49 56 64 68 71 70 71 76 76 77 80 83 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 44 51 55 57 57 55 55 55 55 54 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 3 5 7 8 12 12 18 13 16 14 23 18 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 1 -3 0 -6 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 5 14 347 300 258 270 256 280 263 262 264 240 213 225 227 229 216 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 148 145 142 141 142 141 136 138 139 140 140 144 145 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 150 148 145 142 141 140 137 130 132 132 133 133 135 135 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 64 66 62 60 58 56 52 52 51 53 52 55 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 14 14 16 16 16 14 14 17 17 19 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 11 6 5 -12 -28 -40 -44 -35 -31 -27 -31 -43 -38 -39 -11 200 MB DIV 17 7 10 13 28 38 48 22 47 53 65 60 41 2 27 41 40 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 3 3 1 -3 -2 0 1 4 6 2 2 1 0 4 LAND (KM) 1583 1546 1523 1522 1484 1301 1205 1144 1111 1096 1102 1144 1076 1015 964 869 762 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.5 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.8 15.7 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.4 35.8 37.1 38.4 39.6 42.1 44.2 45.9 47.2 48.6 50.0 51.5 53.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 13 11 10 8 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 28 26 18 13 20 18 23 21 34 43 56 38 34 44 61 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. 1. 4. 3. 4. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 26. 34. 38. 41. 40. 41. 46. 46. 47. 50. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 34.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182021 EIGHTEEN 09/23/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.93 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.79 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 17.5% 11.1% 7.6% 6.9% 10.1% 13.0% 21.6% Logistic: 6.2% 38.7% 27.0% 17.3% 10.3% 27.1% 28.9% 30.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 13.7% 4.3% 0.4% 0.2% 2.3% 8.2% 3.0% Consensus: 4.3% 23.3% 14.1% 8.4% 5.8% 13.2% 16.7% 18.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182021 EIGHTEEN 09/23/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 41 49 56 64 68 71 70 71 76 76 77 80 83 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 46 53 61 65 68 67 68 73 73 74 77 80 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 41 48 56 60 63 62 63 68 68 69 72 75 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 39 47 51 54 53 54 59 59 60 63 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT