* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PETER AL162021 09/19/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 37 36 33 33 33 32 32 31 32 31 32 35 38 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 37 36 33 33 33 32 32 31 32 31 32 35 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 37 38 37 34 31 28 26 24 23 22 20 19 18 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 15 18 22 25 29 24 27 32 36 34 37 28 24 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 8 4 6 9 3 5 1 3 -2 0 3 0 0 0 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 208 219 204 199 206 206 236 257 256 252 255 266 269 268 265 256 241 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 148 153 154 154 154 155 153 156 156 156 155 146 146 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 139 144 146 145 143 140 137 133 135 134 133 131 122 121 117 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 54 57 56 56 58 59 57 58 54 54 50 47 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 20 7 -5 1 -2 -11 -17 -2 5 10 31 34 52 57 44 14 -25 200 MB DIV 51 19 32 51 3 1 -1 37 15 2 -1 24 16 33 -19 0 -9 700-850 TADV 3 6 1 -5 -2 -1 -5 0 -4 0 -2 0 -3 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1038 1006 992 881 745 542 422 411 522 616 694 797 918 1035 1162 1215 1241 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.3 20.1 21.2 22.1 23.2 24.2 25.2 26.2 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.8 54.9 56.0 57.3 58.7 60.9 63.1 65.1 65.9 66.4 66.7 66.6 65.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 13 11 11 8 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 48 62 52 43 39 69 67 58 53 45 41 40 40 39 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -7. -12. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. 0. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.0 53.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162021 PETER 09/19/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.45 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.5% 8.6% 6.0% 5.0% 7.5% 8.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7% 2.3% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.5% 3.2% 2.2% 1.8% 3.1% 3.5% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162021 PETER 09/19/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162021 PETER 09/19/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 37 36 33 33 33 32 32 31 32 31 32 35 38 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 35 34 31 31 31 30 30 29 30 29 30 33 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 31 30 27 27 27 26 26 25 26 25 26 29 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 20 20 20 19 19 18 19 18 19 22 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT