* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/09/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 88 89 90 89 83 63 53 49 36 33 29 23 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 86 88 89 90 89 83 63 53 49 36 33 29 23 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 84 86 86 88 76 57 50 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 2 8 9 9 10 16 31 48 43 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 0 0 2 10 20 7 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 178 224 199 200 193 210 230 236 229 194 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.4 28.7 27.9 27.7 27.6 18.1 11.9 10.6 9.6 10.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 160 149 137 136 137 82 73 70 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 132 121 121 126 78 71 68 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -51.1 -50.3 -49.3 -45.0 -42.0 -42.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 3.9 4.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 58 55 54 57 50 53 61 56 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 36 35 38 35 35 28 28 31 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 7 10 -2 -21 13 22 187 330 338 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 32 36 34 12 87 53 142 97 94 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -3 12 7 13 37 4 -74 90 -44 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1331 1413 1351 1192 1029 636 250 383 920 1306 1271 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 30.3 31.5 33.1 34.6 39.0 44.6 50.7 56.3 60.2 63.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.9 60.8 61.7 61.9 62.2 60.8 56.0 48.6 42.6 38.7 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 19 28 37 36 28 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 29 31 18 16 20 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -6. -15. -23. -31. -38. -41. -44. -48. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -13. -16. -13. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -2. -22. -32. -36. -49. -52. -56. -62. -67. -70. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 29.1 59.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/09/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.82 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 596.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.31 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.18 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 13.1% 9.1% 6.8% 6.6% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 10.7% 8.1% 6.9% 3.6% 2.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.1% 5.8% 4.6% 3.4% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/09/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/09/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 12( 30) 11( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 1( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 86 88 89 90 89 83 63 53 49 36 33 29 23 18 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 86 87 88 87 81 61 51 47 34 31 27 21 16 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 82 83 82 76 56 46 42 29 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 76 75 69 49 39 35 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 65 59 39 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 86 77 71 68 66 60 40 30 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 86 88 79 73 69 63 43 33 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS