* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/06/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 104 105 104 100 102 102 102 100 96 92 77 58 43 32 39 V (KT) LAND 105 104 104 105 104 100 102 102 102 100 96 92 77 58 43 32 39 V (KT) LGEM 105 103 103 102 100 98 100 105 107 104 97 88 65 47 40 40 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 8 9 9 3 5 3 3 19 19 27 36 49 46 32 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 3 2 -3 0 0 -1 0 8 17 4 11 15 5 SHEAR DIR 256 263 273 255 290 350 328 202 159 193 236 229 233 220 205 172 161 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.5 29.3 28.4 27.7 27.6 17.3 13.1 14.2 12.9 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 148 147 150 150 161 158 144 136 137 78 71 70 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 143 135 132 133 134 143 138 125 121 124 74 69 67 66 67 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.0 -50.3 -50.0 -50.4 -49.9 -50.1 -49.9 -51.5 -52.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 8 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 45 43 45 47 52 54 58 60 65 62 49 37 49 52 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 36 36 35 38 38 38 39 39 39 35 27 23 21 32 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 -12 -10 -12 -13 -3 21 15 24 26 30 47 58 66 23 -9 200 MB DIV 9 4 12 11 2 40 44 56 63 65 51 74 82 88 81 50 64 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 7 2 1 4 -8 5 17 25 48 -19 -8 -25 4 13 LAND (KM) 1471 1408 1350 1304 1267 1245 1242 1300 1409 1223 907 590 156 387 831 1216 1435 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.8 22.4 23.1 23.8 25.2 26.6 28.4 30.3 32.8 36.0 40.3 45.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.0 52.8 53.5 54.3 55.0 56.2 57.6 59.2 60.9 61.8 61.3 58.4 53.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 9 10 12 12 14 20 28 29 25 19 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 42 46 40 34 43 45 43 42 29 22 14 16 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -15. -20. -25. -29. -32. -39. -47. -53. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 6. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -8. -18. -22. -24. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. -1. -5. -3. -3. -3. -5. -9. -13. -28. -47. -62. -73. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 21.3 52.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/06/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 935.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 1.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/06/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/06/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 26( 46) 26( 60) 22( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 4( 8) 6( 13) 11( 23) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 104 104 105 104 100 102 102 102 100 96 92 77 58 43 32 39 18HR AGO 105 104 104 105 104 100 102 102 102 100 96 92 77 58 43 32 39 12HR AGO 105 102 101 102 101 97 99 99 99 97 93 89 74 55 40 29 36 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 94 90 92 92 92 90 86 82 67 48 33 22 29 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 82 84 84 84 82 78 74 59 40 25 DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 104 95 89 86 84 86 86 86 84 80 76 61 42 27 16 23 IN 12HR 105 104 104 95 89 85 87 87 87 85 81 77 62 43 28 17 24