* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/04/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 107 109 110 109 109 105 104 104 106 103 105 100 98 93 86 V (KT) LAND 100 104 107 109 110 109 109 105 104 104 106 103 105 100 98 93 86 V (KT) LGEM 100 105 107 107 106 102 101 100 100 103 106 108 108 105 99 92 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 0 2 4 4 7 12 13 7 3 5 7 11 10 18 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -3 -6 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 4 12 SHEAR DIR 144 175 197 322 311 291 295 304 308 306 296 265 234 243 234 233 232 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.2 27.6 28.0 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.1 28.5 27.8 27.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 125 126 130 127 132 137 152 155 159 161 155 145 136 136 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 121 121 124 120 123 126 139 141 144 145 137 127 117 116 101 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -50.3 -50.2 -49.9 -49.9 -49.9 -50.1 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.2 1.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 4 2 700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 62 58 55 52 52 53 53 52 56 59 62 63 65 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 33 34 35 35 37 37 39 40 42 41 42 41 43 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 78 67 65 62 61 43 33 11 4 0 -2 3 8 3 13 67 134 200 MB DIV 111 98 55 40 44 16 4 -3 21 16 61 44 89 54 71 105 53 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 3 -1 -4 -2 0 -3 11 3 34 42 10 LAND (KM) 1559 1517 1481 1473 1478 1501 1428 1316 1195 1116 1113 1190 1354 1241 941 663 449 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.6 20.0 21.2 22.4 23.8 25.5 27.5 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.9 45.2 46.3 47.5 49.6 51.7 53.5 55.1 56.7 58.2 59.7 61.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 11 11 13 14 14 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 14 20 37 22 31 41 36 39 37 43 24 23 15 32 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -19. -24. -27. -29. -30. -31. -34. -37. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 6. 7. 5. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 5. 4. 4. 6. 3. 5. 0. -2. -7. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 15.2 42.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/04/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 556.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.0% 35.8% 24.9% 15.3% 8.2% 14.2% 8.7% 3.1% Bayesian: 22.8% 24.8% 19.6% 2.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.3% 20.2% 14.8% 5.8% 3.1% 5.1% 2.9% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/04/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/04/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 29( 60) 28( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 9( 10) 3( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 104 107 109 110 109 109 105 104 104 106 103 105 100 98 93 86 18HR AGO 100 99 102 104 105 104 104 100 99 99 101 98 100 95 93 88 81 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 99 98 98 94 93 93 95 92 94 89 87 82 75 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 91 90 90 86 85 85 87 84 86 81 79 74 67 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 80 80 76 75 75 77 74 76 71 69 64 57 IN 6HR 100 104 95 89 86 85 85 81 80 80 82 79 81 76 74 69 62 IN 12HR 100 104 107 98 92 88 88 84 83 83 85 82 84 79 77 72 65