* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/02/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 79 83 89 95 98 101 99 101 99 102 103 103 102 99 97 V (KT) LAND 70 74 79 83 89 95 98 101 99 101 99 102 103 103 102 99 97 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 76 79 82 89 94 98 101 102 101 103 106 108 108 106 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 5 7 12 8 4 2 9 11 10 11 6 11 11 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 4 0 -4 -5 0 1 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 272 241 159 92 85 60 97 87 299 296 298 291 281 250 243 262 245 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.9 28.1 28.5 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 126 123 122 122 127 130 136 138 144 158 164 162 160 157 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 126 121 120 119 122 123 127 127 131 144 147 144 140 135 117 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -50.7 -51.1 -50.0 -50.5 -49.9 -49.5 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 68 69 63 57 52 49 51 48 51 53 55 58 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 32 33 36 37 36 37 37 40 40 42 43 44 45 46 48 850 MB ENV VOR 61 63 66 79 86 89 87 74 55 44 26 28 15 12 14 5 50 200 MB DIV 87 91 56 39 56 68 28 14 15 -33 -16 33 63 27 83 30 72 700-850 TADV -14 -15 -15 -9 -5 -1 3 -2 -4 -1 2 4 1 3 5 8 12 LAND (KM) 1901 1887 1805 1706 1619 1529 1500 1535 1490 1434 1311 1240 1219 1255 1352 1473 1289 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.8 17.1 18.5 19.7 21.0 22.4 23.8 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.6 38.2 39.7 41.2 43.9 46.4 48.7 50.6 52.3 53.9 55.3 56.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 16 6 4 11 22 26 31 36 30 51 46 50 35 27 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 8. 7. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 19. 25. 28. 31. 29. 31. 29. 32. 33. 33. 32. 29. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 13.5 35.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/02/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.80 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.24 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.3% 34.2% 26.9% 21.8% 14.3% 15.9% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 18.5% 30.4% 21.0% 11.3% 6.7% 10.8% 6.8% 3.2% Bayesian: 12.5% 24.0% 20.4% 4.1% 1.6% 4.1% 0.7% 0.4% Consensus: 16.8% 29.5% 22.8% 12.4% 7.6% 10.3% 6.9% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/02/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/02/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 11( 21) 17( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 2( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 79 83 89 95 98 101 99 101 99 102 103 103 102 99 97 18HR AGO 70 69 74 78 84 90 93 96 94 96 94 97 98 98 97 94 92 12HR AGO 70 67 66 70 76 82 85 88 86 88 86 89 90 90 89 86 84 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 66 72 75 78 76 78 76 79 80 80 79 76 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT