* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/02/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 81 86 90 95 102 102 105 107 104 105 104 103 106 103 99 V (KT) LAND 70 75 81 86 90 95 102 102 105 107 104 105 104 103 106 103 99 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 80 84 87 90 92 98 102 103 102 102 103 104 106 105 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 6 7 7 11 8 6 4 8 13 13 12 9 10 12 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 2 2 0 -5 -1 -1 0 -3 -5 -4 -3 -1 -3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 328 217 212 153 101 97 101 72 277 287 294 294 279 237 249 230 219 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 125 126 123 122 124 130 132 137 140 159 162 162 164 163 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 125 126 121 120 120 124 125 127 128 146 147 143 144 142 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.5 -53.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -49.9 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 66 66 61 55 49 48 43 42 47 51 55 56 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 31 34 34 34 38 36 38 41 40 41 42 42 46 45 46 850 MB ENV VOR 76 69 72 78 92 110 107 98 74 55 48 41 26 32 36 41 64 200 MB DIV 64 93 104 73 55 90 64 29 25 7 17 37 58 59 58 38 71 700-850 TADV -17 -11 -15 -13 -8 -2 0 -1 -1 0 1 4 7 3 6 8 2 LAND (KM) 1722 1890 1904 1823 1718 1592 1508 1504 1539 1482 1349 1243 1209 1227 1272 1381 1341 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.7 19.2 20.5 21.7 23.1 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.4 35.0 36.6 38.1 39.7 42.6 45.2 47.6 49.6 51.5 53.3 54.9 56.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 15 15 14 13 13 12 10 10 11 11 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 15 14 17 6 13 13 35 27 29 35 40 49 50 44 31 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 7. 6. 8. 11. 10. 11. 10. 9. 13. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 25. 32. 32. 35. 37. 34. 35. 34. 33. 36. 33. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 13.3 33.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/02/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.89 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 333.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.25 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.77 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.0% 40.7% 32.2% 22.6% 14.8% 17.7% 16.1% 0.0% Logistic: 18.3% 28.1% 22.2% 9.8% 3.3% 5.2% 3.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 22.5% 20.9% 22.5% 4.9% 5.2% 5.7% 3.8% 0.3% Consensus: 20.3% 29.9% 25.6% 12.4% 7.7% 9.6% 7.7% 0.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/02/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 8( 12) 12( 22) 17( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 81 86 90 95 102 102 105 107 104 105 104 103 106 103 99 18HR AGO 70 69 75 80 84 89 96 96 99 101 98 99 98 97 100 97 93 12HR AGO 70 67 66 71 75 80 87 87 90 92 89 90 89 88 91 88 84 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 64 69 76 76 79 81 78 79 78 77 80 77 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT